Timeline and context of the UK government's response to Covid19

On Thursday in Question Time, Sir Paul Nurse was very critical of the government’s handling of the crisis, especially its strategy, transparency and leadership. I would agree. Paul Nurse’s criticism was mainly aimed at the government’s handling of testing, but by looking at the timeline and context you can observe the government will have plenty more to answer for in the future.

Here I would like to share with you a timeline of events that shows as clearly as I can make it possible the context of the UK government's response to Covid-19. I have been following this probably a bit more than it would be healthy to anyone but I think it is important not to forget. As usual, each source is included and now hyperlinked to each article.

Going forward I really hope that the government listened to Sir Paul Nurse’s advice and applies good strategies, transparency and leadership, especially regarding testing, tracing and isolation which still have many issues of big concern, for instance tracing's data handling and privacy issues.

This timeline is by no means exhaustive, unfortunately, and for instance it doesn’t include the damning BBC Panorama report on procurement and supply of PPE.

January
12/01/2020	China shares novel coronavirus sequence	China shares the genetic sequence for countries to use in developing specific diagnostic sequences. Reuters reports in mid January Public Health England assigns a diagnostic test to a single lab in London
14/01/2020	Human to human transmission warning	WHO says coronavirus could spread and were preparing for a wider outbreak
16/01/2020	Germany produces diagnostic test	Also in the UK a test in produced around the same time, Public Health England assigns a diagnostic test to a single lab in the UK in mid January (Reuters)
21/01/2020	WHO began daily briefings on novel coronavirus	Reported cases in four countries: China, Thailand, Japan and Republic of Korea
23/01/2020	Wuhan lockdown	Including sorrounding Hubei province
30/01/2020	WHO: 'Covid19 public health emergency of international concern'	This is the highest level of alert that WHO can issue, and recommended 'measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk'.
31/01/2020	Virus has 'pandemic potential'	SPI-M committee recall it was apparent had 'pandemic potential' and 'probably going to be pretty bad', moving into 'wartime mode' and reporting directly to SAGE.
February
03/02/2020	PM does no want Wuhan style lockdown	PM Johnson states 'coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage'
21/02/2020	Italy lockdown begin	Dozens of towns were locked down
21/02/2020	Threat level kept at 'moderate'	Reuters: A member of Nervtag, which advices the government on threats by viruses, emailed to ask the warning to be elevated to 'high', but no change was made. It's unclear why.
26/02/2020	Half a million people could die in the UK	Government memo, 'Covid-19 Reasonable Worst case scenario', prepared by National Security Communications Team
29/02/2020	First local transmission in the UK	England's CMO Prof. Witty announced patient is first to catch the virus in the UK from someone from abroad
29/02/2020	PM missed 5 emergency COBRA meetings	It was revealed Johnson missed 5 of the government's emergency Cobra meetings in late January and throughout February. Gove indicated this was 'normal for a PM' and that he was 'aware of decisions and takes some of those decisions'. The PM was out of sight at Chequers during this time.
March
02/03/2020	Sustained transmission in the UK	SPI-M, Scientific Pandemin Influenza Group on Modelling, report
02/03/2020	Half a million people could die in the UK	SPI-M committee that reports to SAGE anounces four-fifths could be infected and one in ten could die
03/03/2020	Shortage of PPE endangering health workers	WHO calls on governments and industry to increase manufacturing
05/03/2020	First death in the UK
07/03/2020	PM attends rugby match	Johnson and Symonds attended England vs Wales rugby match at Twickenham
09/03/2020	Italy under lock down	Initial lock downs did not contain Covid-19 in Italy. 16M Italians were locked down the previous day.
10/03/2020	Cheltenham festival to go ahead	Festial attended over 3 days to 13th of March by 250,000 racegoers was allowed go ahead
11/03/2020	WHO declares global pandemic	Find, isolate, test and treat every case and trace every contact; Ready your hospitals; Protect and train your health workers. And let’s all look out for each other, because we need each other.' excerpt from WHO statement
11/03/2020	UK hoping to increase PCR testing to 10,000/day	By the week of March 23. By this time it is around 5,000-8,000 tests/day. Germany conduct 160,000/week on 20 March.
12/03/2020	UK risk level changed from 'moderate' to 'high'	Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government's top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at 'moderate,' suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak.
12/03/2020	UK in pandemic 'delay' phase	Johnson announces 'worst health crisis for a generation' and 'many more people will die'. Also UK moving out of 'contain' phase and into 'delay' phase for dealing with the pandemic. Prof Witty announces 'no longer necessary for us to identify every case'.
13/03/2020	UK was looking to build herd immunity	Sir Patrick Vallance defends the government's approach to Covid19 saying it could create 'herd immunity' across the population, possibly by allowing 60% of the population to get infected
15/03/2020	Germany 2 month average of testing at 160,000/week	This is an average of testing per week from mid January to the 15th of March. Germany's Robert Koch's institute believe they can produce 500,000 per week by this time.
16/03/2020	Test, test, test	WHO announces there has not been enough escalation in testing. Testing, tracing and isolation has been the WHO urged strategy since their early Covid19 briefings in January.
16/03/2020	Appeal to manufacturers for ventilators	Johnson launched an appeal to industry to help ramp up production after it was becoming clear supplies could run out.
16/03/2020(EST)	Requests made to labs for assistance	According to Reuters, the government issued no requests to labs for assistance until the middle of March. An executive at the Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine at the University of Oxford said he could have carried out up to 1,000 tests per day from February, but the call never came.
16/03/2020	Half a million could die in the UK	Imperial College report
18/03/2020	UK schools to close	Closure of all schools until further notice from Friday 20th of March
19/03/2020	Purchase of faulty Antibody tests	As simple as a pregnancy test', 'a total game changer' PM Johnson announces
20/03/2020	UK pubs and restaurants shut	Former cabiner minister described recent measures as 'screeching U-turn. Senior governement advisers on brink of quitting before Johnson switched approach.
26/03/2020	UK failed to take part in EU ventilator scheme	No 10 initially said it did not take part because the UK was 'no longer a member' and was 'making our own efforts'. Later clarified 'it had missed out because of an error and would consider participating in future'
28/03/2020	Lancet editor called lost chance to prepare a 'national scandal'	Richard Horton, said the government and public health service wasted February to prepare. He would testify to parliament about a mismatch between “the urgent warning that was coming from the frontline in China” and the “somewhat pedestrian evaluation” of the threat from the scientific advice to the government.
30/03/2020	Britan missed 8 meetings with EU heads about coronavirus	Between February 13 and March 30, Britain missed 8 conference calls or meetings about coronavirus between EU heads of state or health ministers. PM spokesman blamed an administrative error.
April
05/04/2020	PM hospitalised	Johnson admitted to hospital and in intensive care a day later
12/04/2020	UK death toll could be highest in Europe	Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and SAGE committee member anounces
15/04/2020	Ventilator standards of no use for Covid19 patients	Minimum specification for the UK’s homegrown hospital ventilator programme will not produce machines suitable for treating coronavirus patients, the head of the largest organisation for critical care medical professionals has said.
16/04/2020	Antibody test did not work	British officials bought 2M unproven kits from China for $20 million, another 1.5M kits bought at a similar price from other sources also did not work
May
01/05/2020	UK gov claim 100,000 tests per day target met	Department of Health said this number includes tests posted to an individual at home as well as tests conducted. A government source said: 'For home tests kits, we can't control when people will do them'. The number of tests was around 25,000/day a week before and around 10,000/day a month before.