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Pandemic diary: In Edinburgh


Living through the global pandemic. From now on for the next 3 months, possibly, I will be here in Edinburgh where I will self isolate. I decided to be here with my mother who is working at a care home looking after elderly people with dementia.

The global infection almost reached half a million people, I expect the number of confirmed cases to reach half a million by end of today or possibly tomorrow morning. The death toll has reached 21,000 people already and has been increasing by 2000 people per day for at least the last couple of days, due to the increasing number of cases I expect the global death rate to increase even further to more than 2000 people per day soon. 

The situation in the UK is very alarming however I am very hopeful. There is a sense of community that is coming together, for instance our local association of residents has been incredibly kind and supportive of my mother, who has been receiving text messages and emails enquiring about her safety or needs whilst she was living on her own. Meanwhile in England there has been a recruitment surge reaching 500,000 people in the last 24 hours. It is remarkable given some of the dangers that we are experiencing, for instance yesterday a 21-year-old woman died of the disease and she did not have any pre-existing medical conditions as far as it was reported. 

The BBC has indicated that in the 20 to 29-year-old bracket around 1% of cases will need hospitalisation whereas in the 30 to 39 age group, around 3% of cases will need hospitalisation which indicates that those cases are serious and life-threatening. This risk increases further with age, but this is just to reiterate that the danger among young and healthy people is real.

Something that I am uncertain about is the outcome of those cases following recovery, since it is known that the virus is able to attack not only the lungs but also the liver, and in a smaller number of cases the intestines, amongst other organs. 

One of my biggest concerns is actually the United States and Latin America. If the current trends continue then the United States could become the second country with the most number of confirmed cases by tomorrow surpassing Italy and almost immediately by Saturday the US could become the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world. Today the United States already has over 1000 deaths confirmed with a death rate of about 1.5% if we compare it to the number of confirmed cases, however the biggest worry is the speed of increase in the number of cases and the huge strain that this is going to have on its public health care system, which has experienced underfunding and deterioration for many years. 

The situation with Latin American is especially worrying given the absence of political leadership in countries like Ecuador and Brazil that have been hit early in the Latin American region by this pandemic. These countries have seen a fall in the number of secure or permanent jobs and increase in the number of people that are living pay check to pay check. The BBC again has hinted that this could be the start a social crisis in which the poorer people and the disadvantaged are unable to access care and will be hit hardest by the economical downturn and ensuing recession, whilst richer individuals have been seen as the cause of this problem due to their ability to travel to Europe and thus more likely to bring back the virus from affected areas mainly from Italy and Spain.
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